Immigration Policy and the U.S. Labor Market: What Administrative Data Actually Show

Immigration policy shapes labor markets not through abstract debates about borders, but through the administrative machinery that determines who can work, in which sectors, and under what conditions. This article examines the intersection of immigration rules and labor-market outcomes—wage effects, sectoral shifts, and compliance burdens—using administrative data, agency reports, and distributional evidence. For legislative and agency practitioners, the core question is not whether immigration is “good” or “bad” for the economy, but how specific policy levers—visa caps, employment verification systems, worksite enforcement—alter the supply of workers, the behavior of employers, and the administrative load on both. Adjacent concepts include labor-force participation, occupational licensing, the H-2A and H-2B programs, E-Verify, and the Department of Labor’s prevailing wage determinations. Understanding these mechanisms is essential for anyone drafting, implementing, or analyzing domestic policy where labor supply and regulatory compliance intersect.

Workers in a warehouse sorting packages, illustrating labor-market participation and administrative compliance in immigration policy.

The Administrative Architecture of Work-Authorized Immigration

Immigration policy’s labor-market effects begin with the legal categories that channel foreign workers into specific jobs. The Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) and its implementing regulations create a tiered system: permanent employment-based visas (EB-1 to EB-5), temporary nonimmigrant visas (H-1B, H-2A, H-2B, L-1, O-1, among others), and humanitarian statuses that carry work authorization (asylum, Temporary Protected Status, Deferred Action). Each category imposes distinct administrative requirements on employers and workers, and each interacts differently with domestic labor markets.

The Department of Labor (DOL) plays a gatekeeping role for several of these programs. For H-1B visas, employers must file a Labor Condition Application (LCA) attesting that they will pay the prevailing wage and that hiring a foreign worker will not adversely affect U.S. workers. For permanent labor certification (PERM), the process is more onerous: employers must test the labor market through recruitment and prove no qualified U.S. worker is available. These requirements are not mere formalities; they generate administrative data that researchers and agencies use to assess program integrity and labor-market impact. Yet the data often reveal gaps between statutory intent and practical outcomes.

Prevailing Wage Determinations and Wage Floors

The prevailing wage is a central administrative tool intended to prevent undercutting of domestic wages. DOL’s Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) program provides the base data, but the methodology has long been criticized for producing wage levels that lag behind market conditions or that are too broad to reflect local labor markets. A 2020 National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine report noted that the four-tier wage system for H-1B workers can result in entry-level wages that are below the median for an occupation, potentially creating an incentive to hire foreign workers over U.S. workers in certain fields. The administrative burden of challenging a prevailing wage determination falls on the employer, but the data needed to assess whether the system depresses wages in specific occupations and regions is often inaccessible to the public.

For H-2A agricultural workers, the Adverse Effect Wage Rate (AEWR) is designed to protect domestic farmworkers. The AEWR is set regionally based on USDA farm labor surveys, but its calculation has been the subject of litigation and regulatory revision. In 2023, the DOL finalized a rule changing the methodology for computing AEWRs, moving from a single statewide average to a weighted approach that better reflects the mix of occupations. The administrative burden of compliance shifts with each rule change: growers must adjust payroll systems, and state workforce agencies must update their processing of H-2A applications. The distributional effects are uneven—larger agribusinesses absorb these changes more easily than small farms, potentially accelerating consolidation.

Labor-Market Effects: What the Evidence Shows

Immigration’s impact on native-born workers is one of the most studied and contested topics in labor economics. The consensus from meta-analyses and longitudinal studies is that the average wage effect of immigration is small, but the distributional effects are significant. Low-skilled native workers, particularly those without a high school diploma, face wage pressure from inflows of low-skilled immigrants, while higher-skilled natives often see complementary gains. A 2017 National Academies report synthesized decades of research and found that immigration had a “very small” impact on the wages of native-born workers overall, but that prior immigrants and native-born high school dropouts experienced negative wage effects in the short run. These findings are sensitive to the time horizon, the geographic unit of analysis, and the substitutability of worker groups.

Administrative data from the Current Population Survey and the American Community Survey underpin most of these estimates, but they have limitations. They capture legal status imperfectly, often relying on imputations, and they miss the informal economy where many unauthorized workers are employed. This data gap means that the most contentious policy debates—such as the labor-market effects of unauthorized immigration—rest on modeled estimates rather than direct measurement. The Department of Homeland Security’s Office of Immigration Statistics produces periodic estimates of the unauthorized population, but linking those estimates to specific labor-market outcomes requires assumptions that can drive results.

Sectoral Case Study: Construction and Hospitality

Two sectors where immigration policy and labor-market outcomes intersect visibly are construction and hospitality. In construction, a 2021 analysis by the Center for Migration Studies estimated that immigrants accounted for 24% of the workforce overall and 38% in occupations like drywall installation and roofing. The sector’s reliance on immigrant labor, including unauthorized workers, makes it sensitive to enforcement actions. When E-Verify mandates are imposed at the state level, construction employment of unauthorized workers declines, but the effect on native-born employment is mixed. Some studies find modest gains for native-born workers in states with universal E-Verify, while others show that employers shift to cash-based subcontracting, reducing compliance and obscuring the true employment picture.

In hospitality, the H-2B visa program for seasonal nonagricultural workers illustrates the tension between employer demand and administrative caps. The statutory cap of 66,000 visas per fiscal year is routinely oversubscribed, leading DHS and DOL to issue supplemental visas through regulatory discretion. The administrative burden on employers is high: they must demonstrate that no U.S. workers are available, pay prevailing wages, and cover transportation and housing costs. Yet the program’s design creates a paradox: the very employers who follow the rules face uncertainty from annual cap lotteries, while those who hire unauthorized workers avoid the administrative load entirely. A 2022 DOL Office of Inspector General report found that the H-2B application process was vulnerable to fraud and that post-certification audits were insufficient, raising questions about whether the program protects domestic workers as intended.

Construction workers on a building site, representing the sectoral impact of immigration policy on labor supply and wages.

Enforcement, Verification, and the Shadow Economy

Worksite enforcement and employment verification systems are the administrative levers that directly shape the demand side of the immigrant labor market. E-Verify, the electronic eligibility confirmation system operated by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), is voluntary at the federal level but mandatory in some states for all employers or for public contractors. The system compares employee information against Social Security Administration and DHS databases. Its administrative burden is asymmetrical: for large employers with dedicated HR staff, the process is manageable; for small firms, the time and cost of resolving tentative nonconfirmations can be significant. A 2010 study by Westat found that E-Verify’s accuracy was high, but that employer misuse—such as pre-screening applicants—could lead to discrimination.

When enforcement tightens, the labor-market response is not always as predicted. A 2021 study in the Journal of Public Economics examined the effects of county-level 287(g) agreements, which deputize local law enforcement to enforce immigration laws. The authors found that these agreements reduced the employment of likely unauthorized immigrants but did not raise wages or employment for native-born workers in the same low-skilled occupations. Instead, some industries contracted, and native-born workers moved to less-affected areas. The administrative burden of enforcement thus falls not only on immigrants but also on employers who lose workers and on local agencies that must process the fallout. The distributional consequences are uneven, often harming the very communities that enforcement is meant to protect.

I-9 Audits and the Compliance Cascade

Form I-9, the Employment Eligibility Verification form, is a cornerstone of worksite enforcement. Employers must complete and retain an I-9 for every employee, and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) conducts audits to verify compliance. The number of I-9 audits surged during the Trump administration, from 1,360 in FY2017 to over 6,000 in FY2019, before declining under the Biden administration. An audit can trigger a cascade of administrative consequences: fines for paperwork violations, termination of unauthorized workers, and in some cases, criminal charges against employers. The threat of audits also produces a chilling effect: employers in heavily immigrant-dependent sectors may preemptively shed workers or shift to subcontracting arrangements that distance them from liability.

The distributional impact of I-9 enforcement is stark. A 2023 analysis by the Migration Policy Institute found that worksite enforcement disproportionately affects industries with high shares of unauthorized workers, such as meat processing, landscaping, and hospitality. When workers are terminated, they often move to even more precarious employment in the informal economy, where wage theft and safety violations are harder to track. For agency practitioners, the lesson is that enforcement metrics—number of audits, fines levied—do not capture the full labor-market disruption. The administrative burden of compliance cascades through supply chains, affecting not just the targeted employer but also downstream contractors and local economies.

Office workers reviewing documents, reflecting the administrative burden of I-9 compliance and employment verification.

Policy Design and Unintended Consequences

Immigration policy often aims to fill labor shortages while protecting domestic workers, but the administrative details can produce outcomes that diverge from these goals. The H-1B program, for example, was designed to allow U.S. employers to hire foreign professionals in specialty occupations. Yet the program’s reliance on employer attestations, rather than independent labor-market testing, has led to concerns about its use by staffing companies that place workers at third-party sites, potentially displacing U.S. workers. A 2022 DOL Office of Inspector General report found that the agency’s oversight of the H-1B program was insufficient to detect and deter noncompliance, in part because of resource constraints and the complexity of investigating third-party placements.

The Optional Practical Training (OPT) program, which allows foreign graduates of U.S. universities to work temporarily in their field of study, is another example of administrative design shaping labor-market outcomes. OPT does not require a prevailing wage or labor-market test, making it an attractive pathway for employers. The number of OPT participants has grown significantly, from about 75,000 in 2008 to over 200,000 in 2020, driven largely by STEM extensions. Critics argue that OPT functions as a shadow guestworker program, bypassing the H-1B cap and undercutting wages for entry-level U.S. workers. Proponents point to the program’s role in retaining talent. The lack of administrative data on OPT participants’ wages and employers makes it difficult to resolve this debate empirically, a gap that frustrates evidence-based policymaking.

State-Level Interventions and Administrative Fragmentation

States have increasingly enacted their own immigration-related labor policies, creating a patchwork of requirements that complicates compliance for multi-state employers. For instance, some states mandate E-Verify for all employers, while others restrict its use to public contractors or prohibit it entirely. Occupational licensing laws often require proof of legal status, but the specific documentation varies, adding administrative friction for both workers and licensing boards. A 2023 report by the National Conference of State Legislatures catalogued over 200 enacted state laws related to immigration and employment in the previous five years, underscoring the fragmentation that practitioners must navigate.

This fragmentation has distributional consequences. Workers in states with strict verification laws may migrate to neighboring states with looser requirements, shifting labor supply and demand across borders. Employers in high-enforcement states face higher compliance costs, which can be passed on to consumers or result in lower wages. For federal agencies, the patchwork complicates enforcement and data collection, as state-level policies create varying incentives for workers and employers to operate in the formal or informal economy. The administrative burden of tracking these interactions falls on under-resourced agencies, leading to significant gaps in the evidence base.

Data Gaps and the Limits of Analysis

Any serious assessment of immigration policy’s labor-market effects must acknowledge the limitations of available data. The unauthorized population is, by definition, hard to measure. The DHS estimates rely on residual methods that subtract the legally resident foreign-born population from the total foreign-born population in Census Bureau surveys, but these surveys undercount immigrants, particularly those in informal or transient living situations. The result is a range of uncertainty that can span hundreds of thousands of people, making precise labor-market analysis difficult.

Administrative data from visa programs, while more precise, are often siloed across agencies. DOL holds prevailing wage and labor certification data; USCIS holds petition and adjudication data; ICE holds enforcement data. Linking these datasets to examine, for example, whether H-2A workers depress wages in specific counties requires interagency agreements and careful statistical matching that is rarely done in a timely manner. The lack of integrated data infrastructure means that policy debates often rely on outdated or incomplete information, leading to decisions based on assumptions rather than evidence.

What Practitioners Should Watch

For legislative and agency staff, several administrative developments merit close attention. First, the ongoing rulemaking on the H-1B program, including changes to the registration system and site-visit authority, will alter the compliance landscape for employers and the competitive dynamics for workers. Second, the proposed increases in filing fees for employment-based immigration benefits could shift the cost-benefit calculus for employers, particularly small and medium-sized firms. Third, the expansion of automatic work authorization for certain categories, such as spouses of H-1B and E visa holders, will affect labor supply in specific occupations and regions.

Practitioners should also monitor the implementation of the U.S. Citizenship Act of 2021 and similar legislative proposals, which include provisions for a commission on labor-market impacts and changes to the employment-based visa system. The administrative details—how the commission is staffed, what data it can access, how its recommendations are implemented—will determine whether it produces actionable insights or becomes another under-resourced advisory body. The track record of such commissions is mixed, and skepticism is warranted.

FAQ

How does immigration affect wages for native-born workers?

The average wage effect is small, but distributional effects are significant. Low-skilled native workers, particularly those without a high school diploma, face wage pressure from inflows of low-skilled immigrants. Higher-skilled natives often see complementary gains. The effects vary by time horizon, geographic area, and the substitutability of worker groups. A 2017 National Academies report provides a comprehensive synthesis of the evidence.

What is E-Verify and how does it impact the labor market?

E-Verify is an electronic employment eligibility verification system that compares employee information against SSA and DHS databases. It is voluntary at the federal level but mandatory in some states. Its labor-market impact is mixed: it can reduce employment of unauthorized workers but does not consistently raise wages or employment for native-born workers. It also imposes administrative burdens on employers, particularly small firms.

What are the main administrative challenges in linking immigration and labor-market data?

Data are siloed across DOL, USCIS, and ICE, making integrated analysis difficult. The unauthorized population is hard to measure precisely, and visa program data often lack wage and employer details needed for rigorous analysis. Interagency data-sharing agreements and improved statistical matching are needed to close these gaps.

How do state-level immigration policies affect labor markets?

State policies create a patchwork of requirements that complicate compliance for multi-state employers and shift labor supply across borders. Strict verification laws can reduce employment of unauthorized workers but may also push employment into the informal economy. The administrative burden of navigating these policies falls on both workers and employers.

This article is part of a series on administrative burden in U.S. domestic policy. Future pieces will examine the intersection of immigration policy with healthcare access, housing, and state-level fiscal impacts.